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: Unit designed to protect Moscow from NATO attack suffered heavy casualties, U.K. says

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A unit designed to defend Moscow from attack in the event of a war with NATO suffered heavy casualties at the hands of Ukraine, according to the U.K.

The U.K. Ministry of Defense said that elements of Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army were withdrawn from Kharkiv Oblast over the last week. The U.K. says with 1GTA and other formations “severely degraded,” it will take years for Russia to rebuild the capability.

Ukrainian troops continued to pile unrelenting pressure on retreating Russian forces on Tuesday, seeking to hold on to their sudden momentum that has produced major territorial gains.

Fresh yellow-and-blue flags fluttered from the tallest buildings left in partly destroyed towns around Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, while Ukrainian soldiers inspected charred Russian tanks left along the way.

“From the beginning of September until today, our soldiers have already liberated more than 6,000 square kilometers of the territory of Ukraine — in the east and south. The movement of our troops continues,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his nightly address late Monday.

One question that analysts are increasingly discussing is how financial markets should be reacting to Ukraine’s improving fortunes on the battlefield.

“It shifts the balance of risks for markets, with some net improvement overall, but with an increase in both the very positive and very negative tails,” said analysts at Evercore ISI led by Tobin Marcus.

“On the one hand, the rapid Ukrainian advance creates some possibility that Russia concludes its expansive war aims are unattainable and begins to contemplate face-saving paths toward de-escalation, or even (in the tail) a coup against Putin. On the other, Putin may be more dangerous than ever with his back against the wall, increasing the risk of reckless steps in both military and economic domains that he would avoid if his forces were winning, up to (in the tail) the use of battlefield nuclear weapons.”

Kevin Muir, a trader who authors The Macro Tourist blog, said an early end to the Ukrainian/Russian war would likely reduce the chance of a global recession and spark an unwinding of the massive U.S. dollar
DXY,
-0.32%

long position accumulated over the past six months.

Muir said oil
CL.1,
+1.18%

BRN00,
+1.13%

would initially fall on such news, but that investors should want to buy the dip.

— The Associated Press contributed to this report

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