The Republican Party’s chances of taking control of the U.S. Senate in November’s midterm elections have been bouncing back, with betting market PredictIt putting them at 46% on Thursday — a level last seen on Aug. 7 and up from a low of 35% hit in late August.
The GOP’s Senate odds, even with the recent rebound, remain far below their high of 79% reached in April. But there is a clear recovery, as shown in the chart below, and some analysts think it’s because high U.S. inflation continues weigh on the Democratic Party’s prospects.
“Recent polls indicate a bit of a momentum fade for the Democrats, as voter anxiety over the economy and inflation exceeds concern over abortion,” said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, in a note on Wednesday, referring to a focus among voters on abortion rights after the Supreme Court’s June decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
“The biggest issue continues to be inflation; the late summer drop in gasoline prices
has not persuaded voters that inflation has peaked,” Valliere also said.
PredictIt gives Republicans a 79% chance of taking control of the House as of Thursday, after showing a low of 72% in late August and a high of 92% in June. (Note that the betting market says the sum of all odds can be higher than 100%, or $1, especially when they have been changing rapidly, because they reflect most recent trades.)
The additional charts below show key Senate races to watch, as well as well as the performance of each party in a generic congressional ballot.
This is an updated version of a report first published on Sept. 28, 2022.